Thursday, November 02, 2006

Predictions for Round 11 (Updated)

Once again my apologies for completely missing out on the Round 10 predictions. I think I was still in shock from the Roar's loss vs Newcastle.

Round 9 gave myself and Jacob only an extra 2 points, and Drsimmo also an extra 2 points, which includes a bonus point for making a swag of predictions about the games. So so far it is:

Me: 14
Jacob: 12
Drsimmo: 9

Please correct me if I've stuffed something up.

My Tips for Round 11:

Melbourne Victory FC vs Central Coast Mariners FC
Draw 0:0

Newcastle Jets FC vs Sydney FC
Newcastle 2:1

Adelaide United FC vs Perth Glory FC
Adelaide 2:1

New Zealand Knights FC vs Queensland Roar FC
Queensland 1:3

Jacob's Tips:
Melbourne Victory FC vs Central Coast Mariners FC
Melbourne 2:0

Newcastle Jets FC vs Sydney FC
Newcastle 2:0

Adelaide United FC vs Perth Glory FC
Adelaide 1:0

New Zealand Knights FC vs Queensland Roar FC
Queenland 1:4

I suppose the only controversial call I've made is the goalless draw between Melbourne and Central Coast. I think Melbourne has peaked and plateaued, nore-or-less. Sure they have won their last two games, the last against New Zealand and the one before against a very shaky looking Sydney. Only another week before was their first big humiliation. Central Coast on the other hand are still on an upward curve in my view, very strong in defence and dangerous enough in attack to keep Melbourne from getting too cocky up front. We'll know how wrong I am in less than 24 hours, but I can only envision a hard-fought, increasingly defensive, slog to a stalemate.

Newcastle and Adelaide are also on a roll, and Perth too have been fighting hard. In general this is a brilliant competition, where only a slight change in form, an injury or a single clever tweaking in tactics could influence the fates either way between most of these teams. That's exciting, and for a Roar supporter, precariously enjoying second place, bloody nerve-wracking.

I'm not prepared to be too cocky about the Roar vs New Zealand game either. Queensland peaked early, which in all sporting codes is uncharacteristic and frankly not a good sign. Queensland is used to coming from behind, so in the rugby league for example, we're much more comfortable if the score is, say, 28:4 against us at half-time. Then we know we'll flog the southerners in the last 10 minutes. So peaking early is not necessarilly good. On the other hand, football is moreso a tacticians game, and Miron is a clever bugger. I reckon after the present plateau the Roar has another upward curve in form in front of it. But if New Zealand can find its feet right now, and Queensland believe its own propaganda too much, there really could be an upset.

Just one other note on the Roar/NZ game. I don't see how Miron can put Buess on the field at the same time (like possibly within 24 hours) that he's negotiating a contract with the Knights. Conflict of interest? "Do I get a bonus for a home-goal?"

I'm reluctant to make any silly prayers to the football saints because last time I did that Jason Petkovic broke his leg, a blow to the whole League. But blaming myself would be far too arrogant. To whoever out there, let's have some high quality sportsmanship this weekend, in skill and in spirit, and no serious injuries please.


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Blogger Mike Salter said...

Hamish wrote:

Newcastle Jets FC vs Sydney FC
Newcastle 2:1

I think you're being very generous to us there. ;-)

Have a nasty feeling we could really get thumped in this one.

November 02, 2006 10:07 pm  
Blogger drsimmo said...

Okay, here goes nothing ;-)

Melbourne v CCM: CCM 1-2
An upset, I know, but I think (read: hope) that Melbourne can't keep winning forever... maybe

Newcastle v Sydney: Draw 1-1
I'd love a victory here, but when you need prepare your backup keeper to play in the outfield, things are not looking good. I also just can't predict a loss. That would never do! (I do admit to going with Mike though.)

Adelaide v Perth: Adelaide 1-0
Adelaide seemed to struggle last time without Nathan Burns, and with him in India, I think they will again. But Perth will struggle more.

NZ v Queensland: Queensland 1-3
No Vidosic, but NZ just can't get it together, so a comfortable win. NZ to score a late consolation goal.

And thanks for that bonus point :-)

November 03, 2006 2:22 am  
Blogger The Round Ball Analyst said...

I'm another glutten for punishment, here goes;

Melbourne 2 Mariners 0 (go jacob)
melb to be too slick and clinical for a defence that keeps retreating. solid enough in defence to thwart mori.

Newcastle 2 Sydney 1
A direct physical style might just upset the newc defence and cause a few headaches for okon and kennedy, but expect newc to really test sydney's right - bingley and ffye - through carle and rodriguez

NZ 0 Queensland 2
the roar have to dot their i's and cross their t's, but if they're switched on, as professionals should be, they'll get the job done.

Adelaide 1 Perth 1
perth have a knack of snatching stuff in adelaide, who's defence has been a little shaky. if costanzo doesnt play, depsotovski could create a couple of things

November 03, 2006 3:57 pm  
Blogger john said...

OK Hamish I'm up for a go

Melbourne 2 Mariners 0
CC is a team with Mori bolted on.

Newcastle 0 Sydney 1
It is Sydney's turn. Sidebar - I was concerned for the Roar when Alex Brosque left but I should have been concerned the other way. A potentially great player who found his niche in the Roar just as he commited to moving. Jeremy Brockie is in the same boat. Looked like a star for NZK and now hardley gets a game. Why do they beach their careers lining up for the star team?

NZ 0 Queensland 6
well it was 5 last time. At some point this machine will switch on.

Adelaide 1 Perth 0
Qu and Peta are out. And Burns OS. Peta failed Roar's pre-season fitness test and perhaps we are now, after a couple of starts for Adelaide, we are seeing the impact. I still see Kosmina's determination paying off at home.

November 03, 2006 7:56 pm  
Blogger Hamish said...

Tony and John, welcome to the FDO Tipping Comp!

Jacob and I have conferred, and decided the fairest, funnest approach is to start you both at 9 points, equal to Drsimmo who is so far the lowest score.

Well.. an upset so far, and I'm the only one with a point! Wish I'd seen the game. Just going by the score it looks like it was bloody exciting.

November 03, 2006 9:10 pm  
Blogger drsimmo said...

Wow, who could have predicted a 3-3 draw and the events of the game? Pretty exciting by all accounts! Shame I don't get a point and a shame that CCM couldn't hold on, or, even better extend their lead.

November 03, 2006 11:59 pm  
Blogger john said...

What a game. What a game. Just when I was getting bored with the limited number of teams. McMaster was the real man of the match. It takes real skills to get away with fouls like that when 2 of your opposition are sent off.

November 04, 2006 8:11 am  
Blogger The Round Ball Analyst said...

Bravo Hamish for tipping the draw...and thanks for the nine freebies, won't be adding much to that, I'm afraid.

November 04, 2006 8:40 am  
Blogger Hamish said...

Bravo Hamish for tipping the draw...

Um, yeah... I'll take the point of course but it played out in precisely the opposite way that I envisioned. I thought Victory and Mariners would defend each other into the ground. I was so wrong about this that I should (almost) deduct a point from myself.

November 04, 2006 5:01 pm  
Anonymous Greg said...

John, six nil for Queensland v Knights was a little bit over the top.

Go Knights!

November 05, 2006 6:21 pm  
Blogger Hamish said...

G'day Greg. Good to hear from a Knights supporter. Please let me know if there is an independent Knights-supporting blog in existence.

I'm really quite depressed about the weekend's results of course, as Adelaide has once again (and much more convincingly) surpassed the Roar for second place. But sincerely, congratulations New Zealand! The A-League lives!

Cheers for now. I'll write a proper post in the next couple of days.

November 05, 2006 9:35 pm  

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