Sunday, January 07, 2007

Crunching Possibilities

This is a really extraordinary league. If Perth had succeeded in the shock victory which looked like theirs they would technically still have been in the running for a finals place. This would have been assuming Perth won both of the last two games (against Newcastle and New Zealand - not a ludicrous suggestion) and that Newcastle lost both of theirs (against Perth and Melbourne - also not the steepest odds in the world). Anyway this extraordinary situation was stopped tonight, as with the draw it has officially become impossible for a second team to reach the finals. It had become impossible for New Zealand two weeks ago but, significantly, they are still playing quite a role in determining the finals placements.

With two games to go there are still six teams officially in the run, and there is only one team (Melbourne) technically a cert. Sydney (now second) actually could (I wouldn't put money on it) still be out of the top four. Technically it could happen as early as next round if Adelaide beat Sydney, Newcastle beats Perth, and Queensland beats Melbourne by about 12 or 13 goals. Ok, it's unlikely, but you get the idea. With two rounds to go very little is settled. And in the finals, depending on all the vicissitudes of the game, anyone could actually beat anyone on the day.

All that is certain is that Melbourne are in and that New Zealand and Perth are out. I love it.



Anonymous Dave said...

Hey Hamish,

You're spot on - an extraordinary weekend of results; which sets up an even more extraordinary round next weekend.

I suspect the Roar boys will be hoping like hell that Melbourne don't bring their big guns back for the upcoming game, based on yesterday's disjointed effort against Perth. There's actually not much reason for the Vics to do that, other than to sharpen them up for the finals. But can you imagine what would happen if Archie Thompson or Danny Allsop were to be injured this weekend?

Adelaide v Sydney has desperation game written all over it; suddenly a game against NZ doesn't seem like a certain 3 points - or even 1 - for the Mariners (is it too late to nominate Ricki Herbert for coach of the year?); and Newcastle simply can't afford a slip-up against a disappointing Perth outfit.

Looks like being a beauty - and hopefully the round after that even better.

January 08, 2007 9:10 am  
Anonymous wayne said...

That's some fan math you've got going there Hamish! - I'm having to cut back on the coffee at the moment -too many and I start scribbling A-league algorithms like a madman too..

January 08, 2007 12:00 pm  
Blogger Scary Monkey said...

Who needs Sudoku when you have the A-League ladder and fixture?

January 08, 2007 6:37 pm  
Anonymous watt said...

Sydney will miss out, I have faith (or at least as much faith as an Atheist/Pantheist can muster).

Completly off topic but I was looking at your interests and I was wondering if you have a philosophy/politics blog as well.

January 09, 2007 10:31 am  
Anonymous Wes said...

"depending on all the vicissitudes of the game, anyone could actually beat anyone on the day"
That is what makes the A-League interesting, predictability is not part of it.

Unfortunately Hamish, I would like Victory to win at the Dome because its been some time since the last win there which was against Perth Glory on the 9th of November.

January 09, 2007 12:42 pm  
Blogger Hamish said...

Thanks everyone for the comments.

Watt, this is currently the only blog I maintain, but I am a Director of Webdiary and that was my full time job until about half way through last year. You can read my archived stuff here if you like. I also was the coordinating force, along with my sister Margo Kingston, in setting up Your Democracy. My archive is here.

If you want to know whether I intend to get back to politics, my answer for the forseeable future is no. Football is far more important.

January 09, 2007 6:59 pm  
Anonymous wayne said...

here's a calculator for this round , from Adz at the marinators, have fun -
That's some pedigree you have there Hamish... hey Watt, go Pantheists!

January 09, 2007 7:44 pm  
Blogger john said...

It was pretty much the same last season except the teams out at this stage were NZ and wait for it... Melbourne.

When Perth missed out their owners took their bat and ball and went home - leaving the FFA to run things. FFA brought in Frank Farina's friend Ron Smith.

But Ernie Merrick is the coach of the year...

January 09, 2007 9:29 pm  
Blogger The Round Ball Analyst said...

...Football is far more important....

Here, here.

Nice piece Hamish and well done to the Roar.

January 09, 2007 10:50 pm  

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